The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. After Stills, New Orleans used a first-round pick on Brandin Cooks, who ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. *Numbers taken from the 2016-19 NFL seasons. He has just one completion. Falcons. Forces Passes Ideal. Excluding Breess 2020, the average QBR for passers with both an average air yards per attempt below 7.00 and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at least 20 air yards was 51.1, which is well below the overall league average of 60.4 since 2006. He needs to work on his mechanics in 2018. I never said the QB shouldn't throw the jump ball. One Defining Question for Each Second-Round NBA Playoff Series. How many passing yards does Drew Lock have? Who has the most career 150 rushing yard games? The main question here is whether the pass was really off target or adjusted away from coverage. While Winston went deep on 15.8% of his dropbacks (fourth), Fitzpatrick was all the way down in 16th at 12.9%. Is there any reason to believe it's not? Although if you give the QB credit for throwing up jump balls to a very good receiver, you're essentially crediting the QB for having a good receiver when the whole point is trying to isolate the QB from his surroundings. Join our linker program. Do you have a blog? Marcus Mariota was the 10th most efficient passer. Minshew led the NFL in passer rating on deep targets a season ago and was one of the leagues best in terms of accuracy, too. but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground. From a Colts fan perspective, I don't remember their being complaints about Brissett's deep ball. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Brady breaks Brees' career passing yards record, Brees all for Brady breaking passing yards mark, Spears has had it with Clark and Kellerman defending Manning. Thats an especially pressing issue now, with Thomas still struggling to return and leading wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 reserve list. What's the catch? More NFL Draft Takeaways. Tannehill still wasnt the best deep passer in the world, but what made a difference was that he didnt make mistakes on those attempts. Only four quarterbacks had more big-time throws on deep shots than Mayfields 23, but those plays resulted in just seven touchdowns. From his Combine profile: "Struggles with deep ball accuracy completing just 23.1 percent on attempts of 21-plus yards. This year, only three of Breess 68 attempts have been deeper than 20 yards, a rate of 4.4 percent. Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore, instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas. But two games into the 2020 season, its clear that his arm is no longer with us. In addition to the efficiency score, are the situational splits (play action, open window, tight window, etc.) A year ago, he was at the bottom end of nearly every list, particularly when it came to accuracy. Find out more. Brees resents the implication that this development will prevent the Saints from contending. We would say that 74.7 percent of said quarterback's passes would have had clean pockets. Again, you can find an even larger amount of information on the actual Deep Ball Project at this link. This is not to say that Breess career is over, or that the Saints are doomed in 2020. Henderson, who was already in New Orleans when Brees arrived, was the first. The crazy thing is that Julio Jones had 12 of those 18 accurate incompletions. Overview Upgrades Abilities Compare . That's six points already. ", http://presnapreads.com/2018/03/25/quarterback-tiers-and-rankings-based-exclusively-on-the-2017-season/. But the days of Brees sprinkling in an occasional shot over the top seem to be over. While Brees is still effective throwing downfield - 46.3 completion rate (2nd) and 16.1 YPA (3rd) on attempts longer than 20 yards - he only went deep on . All rights reserved. topg. In this clip from the Saints first game of the year, Brees has two open receivers downfield. Sixteen quarterbacks finished above the average for accuracy percentage, and the same number finished above the average for efficiency score. Get the latest news, stats, videos, highlights and more about quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. The aggressiveness of a QB could also affect this perception quite a bit. . Ryan lacked the stellar stats of his MVP year in 2016, but that's because the departure of Kyle Shanahan produced far fewer open windows and he had 18 accurate incompletions (accurate passes that the receiver failed to catch). But in the past, Brees did have the most air yards. Well, head coach Bill O'Brien went away from the play-action, read-option offense he provided to Watson and gave Savage an offense that forced him to throw tight-window passes at the rate of Aaron Rodgers. 80,358. With no Roethlisberger for almost all of last season, we have pulled up his 2018 statistics to include him on the list. While Andy Dalton was a pedestrian deep passer, the Bengals will be hoping that Joe Burrow is entirely different. Birth Country: United States. After Henderson, the team drafted Kenny Stills, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. The only area he struggled in was on throws of 20 to 24 yards, where he finished 16th. The average accuracy rate for this year's Deep Ball Project was 48.1 percent, while the average efficiency score was 0.99. If you have a receiver that wins the jump-ball regularly, then the QB SHOULD throw jump balls to him, he's an idiot if he doesn't. Cian and John are the only two writers I know that chart every QB's accuracy and publish their data like this. Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Again, rankings out of 35 are in parentheses. The league has known that for as far back as anybody can remember, and in todays game, the most reliable way of producing them is by throwing the ball deep. In short, he was a lot of fun to watch and chart, as his accuracy across the boards was phenomenal. There is a wider variety of scenarios that play into accurate passes aside from the typical uncontested drop. Explore Properties. Finally, let's look at the percentage of situations each quarterback was in. So how are the points handled, you might ask? Let's consider that the Eagles gave Nick Foles the second-highest rate of play-action when Wentz was lost for the season. Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NFL player performance data. There is an entire five-minute video of Breess 70-yard touchdown passes, many of which are bombs thrown over the top. That results in the quarterback's efficiency score. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by ramirez. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.). How big of a role did Sean Payton play in Drew . Javascript is required for the selection of a player. You'd think those would more closely line up if every play was looked at. Birth date: January 15, 1979. His completion rate was good, but six turnover-worthy plays hurt him overall, with five of those plays resulting in an interception. Similar to how most extreme short passers struggle to post efficient numbers, the other offenses whose receiving corps were led by running backs tended to grade as mediocre, according to schedule-adjusted expected points added (EPA). Use promo code, C.J. Cousins overall deep numbers werent spectacular, but when he hit on a shot it tended to be an absolute dime. Now let's get to the accuracy percentages on every distance of deep passes. The quality of Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett meant that he was constantly throwing to open receivers as well. Every offseason, I independently chart quarterbacks on what I like to call the Deep Ball Project. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints 48.4% completion percentage, 13.0 yards per attempt, 107.2 Passer Rating Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when he's at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. In that August story about Brees's. He led the NFL in completion percentage, had a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and helped earn the Saints a 13-3 record (8-3 in Breess starts) and the top seed in the NFC. Game flow and situation can only account for so much, and the Colts will be desperately hoping that isnt an indicator of his arm just being cooked. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. I love detailed breakdowns like this (boy, did I find this way late - guess this is for anyone else who also reads this late). Steals Per Game. Please enter a valid email and try again. What, Exactly, Is the Detroit Lions Plan? He was the best downfield passer of 2017, as well as the most accurate. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. His arm strength has steadily declined in recent seasons, and last year, his passes traveled shorter distances than any other NFL quarterback, with an intended air yards per target of 6.4 yards. Projections. Last year, that fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest mark of his career and second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Did he peak in October or so and then decline? Arguably the best quarterback in football right now, Patrick Mahomes was a devastating deep passer in 2019 despite battling through a series of injuries throughout the year. Drew Brees. Matthew Stafford has the totals but lacks in accuracy. I'm not sure docking 3 points for an inaccurate completion makes sense, it seems like it would be too harsh in many cases. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? While the attempt-difference question remains, of the 8 QBs who had less than a 10-attempt difference & 60 or more attempts total (by John's study), the rank-change was +7 (in John's) to -2. Though college comparisons are weak at best, Burrow was the best-graded deep passer in the nation in 2019, posting the best adjusted completion rate as well as the most completions, yards and touchdowns. On Baltimores side, it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight, with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia though the Eagles late comeback against what is (on paper) one of the NFLs top defenses was concerning. Winston was incredibly productive, but it always came at a cost, one that NFL teams have apparently decided is too much to live with for a while. Three-point Field Goals Made Per Game. Is there some other bias we can't possibly see with a couple of potentially cherry picked examples? The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Brissett ranked 30th in completion percentage among qualified starters, or whatever Pro Football Reference deems "qualified," ahead of only CJ Beathard and DeShone Kizer. Turnovers Per Game. It doesn't smell right, it doesn't match his profile, it's not reflected in his performance, and it's not corroborated by the fans. Every throw that reaches at least 16 yards in the air is constituted as a downfield pass. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. The narrative surrounding Daniel Jones was so concentrated on his high mistake rate that I didnt realize quite how bad his deep passing numbers were. Ben Roethlisberger was the least accurate passer under pressure and into tight windows. Ultimately its just another part of Trubiskys game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubiskys. Drew Lock played 24 games over his career. Had several overthrows when tasked with deep throws down sideline versus man coverage. Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6%), 4. Joe Burrow (68.2%), 2. Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when hes at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. Drew Brees, (born January 15, 1979, Dallas, Texas, U.S.), American gridiron football quarterback who was one of the most prolific passers in National Football League (NFL) history and set numerous single-season and career passing records, including the all-time marks for pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. But something changed in 2017. In 59 games, he threw for a total of 12,348 yards, 80 touchdowns and 53 interceptions. John Kinsley is on Twitter @brickwallblitz. If thats not enough, there are another three years of gifs/studies to consider. The player with arguably the leagues strongest arm is arguably the leagues worst deep passer. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard: One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). Drew Brees (13) Alvin Kamara is a destructive receiving threat out of the backfield and can turn short passes into big gains. Interpreted as: Drew Brees deep ball passing accuracy career. Taylor throws a pretty deep pass, and he used to drop dimes with regularity early in his career. Looking at Savage vs Watson and Foles vs Wentz, it would appear the price of mobility is increasing rates of throwing on the move, but with the bump of less pressure and more open windows. Outside of that, though, his accuracy to every other distance was dismal. All 259 picks are in. The person most acutely aware of this decline seems to be Brees. The Day Kansas City Drafted Patrick Mahomes, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, and the Day 3 QBs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Highlights Deep Class of WRs, Most Undervalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Colts Take Will Levis in Latest Mock Draft. Or write about sports? Jimmy Garoppolo has an excellent grade on these plays, but he attempted just 31 deep shots all season the fewest among full-time starting quarterbacks. Next is how accurate each quarterback fared in certain scenarios such as clean pockets, pressure, off-balance throws, into open windows, and into tight windows, while also looking at inaccurate completions and accurate incompletions. Alex Smith had 1802 adjusted yards. The encouraging sign for Panthers fans is that after a couple of games, Bridgewater did start to open up and take more shots, but even with those, only Garoppolo threw it deep less often. Bill O'Brien had zero excuses for taking away those calls from Savage. However, over the past few seasons, he hasnt been as efficient with those deep shots and has never been aggressive with the frequency with which he goes deep. With this in mind, let's take a look at the final raw numbers for all 35 quarterbacks that were charted. Obviously different definitions of accurate could result in differing accurate-pass totals (John's total-sample Acc% was 4.9% more), but looking at QBs who didn't play in the playoffs (I wasn't sure if those were included here), this study had over 100 less attempts than Cian's. My jobs not to have the most air yards. Brees was mocking anybody who would hold some silly advanced stat in his face as a sign hes not a good quarterback. . Only Garoppolo threw deep less often, even adjusting for the games he missed injured, and by late in the year his arm looked alarmingly weak. 1 rolling rating in our QB Elo metric, which I suspect is overstating things a bit but it does speak to his expectation-defying performance so far this season. Everybody wants explosive plays in the NFL. He managed this despite playing with some of the least efficient receivers of 2017 (even Delanie Walker let him down) as well as being in a Mike Mularkey offense that gave him great protection but very few open windows. Drew Lock weighs 228 lbs (103 kg). Drew Brees completed 67.7 percent of passes in his career. We must say a farewell to armsor, at least one arm. Do you have a sports website? Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands. My Wish 2007 Drew Brees - Devan Muller meets Drew Brees, Brees fires up LSU baseball with old Saints hype speech. Starter is currently injured and may not play. . Its not that Derek Carr is bad at passing deep, its just that it seems to be near impossible to convince him to try it. Only Jimmy Garoppolo who benefits hugely from the scheme in San Francisco when it comes to deep shots had a higher adjusted completion rate on deep passes than Deshaun Watson last season. After Cooks, the Saints traded for Ted Ginn, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. Tom Brady saw the second-highest rate of open-window passes. Jones has plenty to work on this offseason, but deep passing should absolutely be part of the equation. Accuracy percentage takes a look at whether the pass was or wasn't accurate, regardless whether it was caught. 2009 Bert Bell Award (Player of the Year), Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. Tom Brady had 1889 adjusted yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the only quarterback in the league who can rival Jameis Winston for Y.O.L.O. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Washington needs Haskins to take a step forward in this area, just as the Giants do with Daniel Jones. A massive part of being a great QB is knowing your receiver's strengths and playing to them. The Ravens are declining linebacker Patrick Queen's fifth-year option, a source told ESPN. The real question, however, will be if Brees can keep it up over the rest of the season. Here are our grades for all 32 squads. New Orleans Saints (52) The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. Its not like he just presented his results, he showed his methodology on how he got there. This year, that figure is down even further, sitting at just 4.9 yardsa yard and a half per throw lower than his league-worst number from last year. These include: For every edition of the Deep Ball Project, I have added in new stats to allow for more context. If we scale it by 39/22 that is 1257 yards. Best Known For: NFL quarterback Drew Brees . Drew Brees Career Stats | StatMuse Drew Brees Authentic voice 6'0", 209 lbs Saints QB PCT 67.7 YDS 80,358 TD 571 RATE 98.7 Career Overview Stats Game Log Splits Bio Explore Drew Brees rookie season stats When was Drew Brees drafted? For his career, 10.8 percent of Breess throws have been to targets deeper than 20 yards downfield. On the 37 deep attempts after he got in the lineup, he didnt have a single turnover-worthy play or interception, even if his numbers became a little inflated by work done after the catch by the likes of A.J. (Tannehills average pass travels nearly 2 yards farther than Breess, though, because he seldom targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage.) How tall is Drew Lock? INT. DeSean Jackson being missing especially crippled Wentzs ability to win deep down the field regularly, and though his passing itself was solid, the production the offense had on these attempts was lackluster at best. posted a seven-year-high YPA (6th in NFL) and set a career low in interceptions as a starter, resulting in a career-high 115.7 passer rating. What saved his grade was his solid accuracy on throws of 40-plus yards, under pressure, and into tight windows. That is 21.4 yards/attemp. The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. Right - this gets into a bit of trying to decide where the QB was trying to throw the ball - which seems like an exercise in futility. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. Of course a QB could also be overly-aggressive or a poor decision-maker. (Even for Smith in 2014, 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards. A highlight reel of only his best deep passes would be as good as that from any quarterback in the league, but he missed on more than he should have given his ability to make those passes. Drew Brees School: Purdue Position: QB Heisman Voting : 4th in 1999, 3rd in 2000 Draft: 2nd round, 32nd overall of the 2001 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers 15 Drew Brees Overview Game Logs 2000 Career Splits 2000 Career Drew Brees NFL Stats On this page: Passing Rushing & Receiving Scoring Leaderboards, Awards, & Honors Full Site Menu Hed go on to lead the league in deep throw passing yards four more times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012), completions on deep throws four times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012) and touchdowns on deep throws seven times, including six straight years from 2008 to 2013. Quickly compare stats, fantasy rankings and points to find out which player is a better option in your fantasy football league. His accuracy into open windows was horrible and he took poor care of the ball downfield, getting lucky on passes that should have been picked off. PoY Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield, Brees has added value through sheer accuracy and ability to read defenses. (Was there THAT big of a difference in 15/16 yard "hard to tell" discrepancies? Tom Brady has never been the leagues best deep passer, but like everything else in New England, his deep passing suffered from the lack of quality receivers in 2019. We are gathered here today to remember Drew Breess arm. You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. Career Stats: Brees: 249 Games, 66.9% completion, 70,445 yards, 488TDs, 228 Ints, QB Rating 96.7. Stroud Falls to Colts in GTM's Final Mock Draft, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets: Low Floor, Low Ceiling, QBASE 2023: Why Bryce Young Tops C.J. Jeff Legwold explains why the Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy's rookie option. Really enjoyed these numbers and the commentary. Keenum was #1 in DYAR. Breess arm carried this team for so long; now its time for the aging great to get a boost. Wilson produced five more big-time throws (PFFs highest-graded throws that take into account ball location accuracy, etc.) Fandom; Futhead; Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. View a side-by-side comparison of Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Here are five questions that could determine that series outcome. Is the reviewer a Colts fan, for instance? Jimmy Garoppolo was the most accurate quarterback under pressure, making an accurate pass on every single pressure play on downfield attempts. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. He finished with an overall quarterback rating of 84.9. 2 is Dak Prescott. His accuracy was 15th with good pass protection, but was second-to-last under pressure. Infamous in prior seasons for checking the ball down, Alex Smith's 2017 saw him throw the deep ball with better touch than ever before. Theyll also serve as a test for whether New Orleans can live up to its solid Super Bowl odds, despite deploying such a limited passing attack. Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. The only valid argument you make is the correlation to Fahey's numbers. Drew Brees Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com Drew Brees Drew Christopher Brees Position: QB Throws: Right 6-0 , 209lb (183cm, 94kg) Born: January 15 in Austin, TX (Age: 44-060d) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 13x Pro Bowl 1x All-Pro 1x SB Champ SB XLIV MVP 2004 AP Comeback Player 2x AP Off. Fantasy Football. Watson has the arm to make special deep passes, and while he made a lot of big plays, only three passers threw more interceptions on deep shots than the five Watson managed over the regular season. Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. Henderson played with the Saints until 2012, and caught six 50-plus yard touchdowns from Brees. Outside of throws of 40-plus yards, Nick Foles' accuracy was lacking. Case Keenum was the least efficient downfield passer, surprising since he led the league in overall passing DVOA. After all the passes are tallied up, the final number of points is divided by the amount of downfield passes. The San Francisco quarterback also benefitted from Kyle Shanahans scheme regularly presenting him with wide-open targets downfield, but to his credit, he hit them when called upon. Plays where the receiver fails to keep two feet in bounds or in the end zone. 18.8 yards/attemp. A concern for Watson is that he had the highest rate of off-balance throws (and the second-highest total of off-balance throws to Derek Carr). Prescott threw for the third-most yards on these plays and had the third-most completions.